Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
August Survey: Inflation Expectations Up at Short-Term Horizon; Consumers’ Job Finding Expectations Drop to Series Low
  • Median inflation expectations ticked up 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the three-year-ahead and at 2.9 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell markedly by 5.8 ppt to 44.9 percent, the lowest reading since the start of the series in June 2013.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.7 ppt to 39.1 percent. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months ticked up by 0.1 ppt to 14.5 percent.
  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged for the second consecutive month at 2.9 percent in August. Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.1 ppt to 5.0 percent.



For more details:
Press Release: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Up, Job Finding Expectations Reach Series Low
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
Survey
SCE Household
Spending Survey
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SCE Housing
Survey
SCE Labor Market
Survey
SCE Public Policy
Survey
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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