NEW YORK—On Wednesday, May 17 at 10:00 am EDT, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will launch monthly publication of a new research product that will offer a unified approach to measuring downside risk to real GDP growth, upside risk to the unemployment rate, and two-sided risks to CPI inflation.
Outlook-at-Risk will present estimates of the conditional distribution of the future evolution of these key economic variables based on the relationship with the level of financial conditions.
Following the launch of Outlook-at-Risk, the estimated conditional and unconditional distributions will be updated at or shortly after 10:00 am on the third Wednesday of each month.
In conjunction with the new product, the New York Fed will publish a Liberty Street Economics blog post using the data on conditional distributions to investigate how two-sided risks to inflation and downside risks to real activity have evolved over the current and previous five monetary policy tightening cycles.
Outlook-at-Risk was first introduced through a Liberty Street Economics blog post in February 2023, which was inspired by previous work on “Vulnerable Growth.”
Press Call on Outlook-at-Risk: Economists will host a deep background press call on Wednesday, May 17 at 9:00 am EDT to provide further context on Outlook-at-Risk. Journalists interested in participating should RSVP to Suzanne Elio at suzanne.elio@ny.frb.org.
