Applied Macroeconomics
& Econometrics Center (AMEC)

  Developing models and tools for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.
 
GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURE INDEX   |   MCT INFLATION   |   NY FED DSGE MODEL FORECAST   |   NY FED STAFF NOWCAST   |   OUTLOOK-AT-RISK   |   R-STAR   |  
YIELD CURVE AS A LEADING INDICATOR   |   TREASURY TERM PREMIA

New York Fed Staff Nowcast
New York Fed Staff Nowcast Remains at 2.4% for 2025:Q2
May 30, 2025
outlook-at-Risk
Downside Risks to Activity Recede
in May
May 21, 2025
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
Global Supply Chain Pressures Fell
in April
May 6, 2025
Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
Multivariate Core Trend Inflation Remains at 3% in March
May 5, 2025
What's Ahead
AMEC Releases
Publications
FEATURED ARTICLES
Stock Market Participation, Inequality, and Monetary Policy
Davide Melcangi and Vincent Sterk
Review of Economic Studies, June 2024
On Binscatter
Matias D. Cattaneo, Richard K. Crump, Max H. Farrell, and Yingjie Feng
American Economic Review, May 2024
U.S. Market Concentration and Import Competition
Sebastian Heise and Mary Amiti
Review of Economic Studies, April 2024
Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets
Ozge Akinci and Albert Queralto
RFS Editor’s Choice
The Review of Financial Studies, February 2024
Stress Tests and Model Monoculture
Keshav Dogra
Journal of Financial Economics, February 2024
Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations
Julian di Giovanni, Andrei A. Levchenko, and Isabelle Mejean
Journal of Political Economy, February 2024
Measuring Growth in Consumer Welfare with Income-Dependent Preferences: Nonparametric Methods and Estimates for the United States
Danial Lashkari and Xavier Jaravel
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2024
Archive
2024
The Countercyclical Benefits of Regulatory Costs
Alexander Mechanick and Jacob P. Weber
Journal of Legal Analysis, August 2024
The NY Fed DSGE Model: A Post-COVID Assessment
Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Aidan Gleich, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Ramya Nallamotu
AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024
Inflation Strikes Back: The Return of Wage-to-Price Pass-Through
Fatih Karahan, Mary Amiti, Ayşegül Şahin, and Sebastian Heise
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, April 2024
Firms' Precautionary Savings and Employment During a Credit Crisis
Davide Melcangi
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2024
2023
Subsidizing Startups under Imperfect Information
Davide Melcangi and Javier Turen
Journal of Monetary Economics, October 2023
The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on Foreign Firms
Julian di Giovanni and John Rogers
IMF Economic Review, September 2023
The Overnight Drift
Nina Boyarchenko, Anna Kovner, and Or Shachar
Review of Financial Studies, September 2023
Approximating Grouped Fixed Effects Estimation via Fuzzy Clustering Regression
Daniel J. Lewis, Davide Melcangi, Laura Pilossoph, and Aidan Toner-Rodgers
Journal of Applied Econometrics, July 2023
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK
Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, and Edouard Challe
American Economic Review, July 2023
Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus under Supply Constraints
Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem KALEMLI-ӦZCAN, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yıldırım
American Economic Association (Papers and Proceedings), May 2023
The Forward Guidance Puzzle
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, and Christina Patterson
Journal of Political Economy Macro, March 2023
Inference on Probablisitic Surveys in Macroeconomics with an Application to the Evolution of Uncertainty in the Survey of Professional Forecasters during the COVID Pandemic
Federico Bassetti, Roberto Casarin, and Marco Del Negro
Handbook of Economic Expectations,, January 2023
The Term Structure of Expectations
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench, and Bruce Preston
Handbook of Economic Expectations, January 2023
2022
Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
Julian di Giovanni and Galina Hale
Journal of Finance , December 2022
Slow Recoveries and Unemployment Traps: Monetary Policy in a Time of Hysteresis
Sushant Acharya, Julien Bengui, Keshav Dogra, and Shu Lin Wee
The Economic Journal, August 2022
A New Approach to Assess Inflation Expectations Anchoring Using Strategic Surveys
Olivier Armantier, Argia M. Sbordone, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams
Journal of Monetary Economics, July 2022
The Commercial Paper Funding Facility
Nina Boyarchenko, Richard K. Crump, Anna Kovner, and Deborah Leonard
Economic Policy Review, June 2022
The Primary and Secondary Corporate Credit Facilities
Nina Boyarchenko, Caren Cox, Richard K. Crump, Andrew Danzig, Anna Kovner, Or Shachar, and Patrick Steiner
Economic Policy Review, June 2022
Robust Inference in Models Identified via Heteroskedasticity
Daniel J. Lewis
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, May 2022
The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation
Sushant Acharya and Keshav Dogra
JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, April 2022
Credit Spreads, Financial Crises, and Macroprudential Policy
Ozge Akinci and Albert Queralto
AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL: MACROECONOMICS, April 2022
Subjective Intertemporal Substitution
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Andrea Tambalotti, and Giorgio Topa
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS, March 2022
International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem KALEMLI-ӦZCAN, Mehmet Fatih Ulu, and Yusuf Soner Baskaya
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES, March 2022
The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of Wage-Price Pass-Through
Sebastian Heise, Fatih Karahan, and Ayşegül Şahin
JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, February 2022
On the Factor Structure of Bond Returns
Richard K. Crump and Nikolay Gospodinov
ECONOMETRICA, January 2022
The Mortgage Rate Conundrum
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti
JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, January 2022
2021
Identifying Shocks via Time-varying Volatility
Daniel J. Lewis
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES, November 2021
Household Search and the Marital Wage Premium
Laura Pilossoph and Shu Lin Wee
AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL: MACROECONOMICS, October 2021
Financial Frictions and Macro-Economic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies
Ozge Akinci
JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, September 2021
The Size-Power Tradeoff in HAR Inference
Eben Lazarus, Daniel J. Lewis, and James H. Stock
ECONOMETRICA, September 2021
What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?
Fatih Guvenen, Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song
ECONOMETRICA, September 2021
Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index
Daniel J. Lewis, Karel Mertens, James H. Stock, and Mihir Trivedi
JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, August 2021
Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing?
Simon Mongey, Laura Pilossoph, and Alexander Weinberg
THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC INEQUALITY, August 2021
What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, August 2021
High-Frequency Data and a Weekly Economic Index during the Pandemic
Daniel J. Lewis, Karel Mertens, James H. Stock, and Mihir Trivedi
AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, May 2021
Labor Market Policies during an Epidemic
Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, and Kurt See
JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS, February 2021
Online Estimation of DSGE Models
Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Edward Herbst, Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati, and Frank Schorfheide
THE ECONOMETRICS JOURNAL,, January 2021
2020
The Research–Policy Nexus: ZLB, JMCB, and FOMC
John C. Williams
JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, December 2020
Discussion of “Monetary Policy Challenges From Falling Natural Interest Rates,” by Klaus Adam
Argia M. Sbordone
CENTRAL BANKS IN A SHIFTING WORLD, ECB FORUM CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS, November 2020
Alternative Indicators for Chinese Economic Activity Using Sparse PLS Regression
Jan J. J. Groen and Michael Nattinger
ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW, October 2020
The Impact of Foreign Slowdown on the U.S. Economy: An Open Economy DSGE Perspective
Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Benigno, and Paolo Pesenti
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW, October 2020
Nowcasting the Great Recession
Domenico Giannone, Eric Qian, Argia M. Sbordone, Mihir Trivedi, and Patrick Adams
IN ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS, C. JAMES HUENG, ED., August 2020
Characteristic-Sorted Portfolios: Estimation and Inference
Matias D. Cattaneo, Richard K. Crump, Max H. Farrell, and Ernst Schaumburg
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS, July 2020
COVID-19: A Double Whammy of Financial and Economic Sudden Stops for Emerging Economies
Gianluca Benigno, Andrew Foerster, Christopher Otrok, and Alessandro Rebucci
IN COVID-19 IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, S. DJANKOV AND U. PANIZZA, EDS., CEPR PRESS, June 2020
Understanding HANK: Insights from a PRANK
Sushant Acharya and Keshav Dogra
ECONOMETRICA, May 2020
Discussion of “Should Germany Have Built a New Wall?”
Tommaso Porzio and Sebastian Heise
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS, April 2020
What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?
Marco Del Negro, Michele Lenza, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti
BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, (SPRING), March 2020
Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
IN STRATEGIES FOR MONETARY POLICY, JOHN H. COCHRANE AND JOHN B. TAYLOR, EDS. HOOVER INSTITUTION PRESS, January 2020
2019
Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization
Michele Cavallo, Marco Del Negro, W. Scott Frame, Jamie Grasing, Benjamin A. Malin, and Carlo Rosa
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL BANKING, December 2019
DSGE Forecasts of the Lost Recovery
Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Abhi Gupta, Pearl Li, and Erica Moszkowski
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, October 2019
Nonlinearity and Flight-to-Safety in the Risk-Return Trade-off for Stocks and Bonds 
Tobias Adrian, Richard K. Crump, and Erik Vogt
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, August 2019
Normality Tests for Latent Variables
Martín Almuzara, Dante Amengual, and Enrique Sentana
QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS, July 2019
Statistical Discrimination and Duration Dependence in the Job Finding Rate
Gregor Jarosch and Laura Pilossoph
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES, July 2019
When the United States Sneezes…
John C. Williams
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE, July 2019
Credit Supply and the Housing Boom
Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti
JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, June 2019
Flow Origins of Labor Force Participation Fluctuations
Fatih Karahan, Gizem Kosar, and Ayşegül Şahin
AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, May 2019
Global Spillovers in a Low Interest Rate Environment
Sushant Acharya and Paolo Pesenti
OXFORD RESEARCH ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, May 2019
Global Trends in Interest Rates
Marco Del Negro, Domenico Giannone, Marc Giannoni, and Andrea Tambalotti
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, May 2019
A Unified Approach to Measuring u* 
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, and Ayşegül Şahin
BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, (SPRING), March 2019
Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS, March 2019
Geographic Reallocation and Unemployment during the Great Recession: The Role of the Housing Bust
Fatih Karahan and Serena Rhee
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND CONTROL, March 2019
Working Papers
Micro Responses to Macro Shocks
Martín Almuzara and Víctor Sancibrián
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2024, Revised May 2025
Component-Based Dynamic Factor Nowcast Model
Hannah O’Keeffe and Katerina Petrova
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2025
OLS Limit Theory for Drifting Sequences of Parameters on the Explosive Side of Unity
Tassos Magdalinos and Katerina Petrova
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, August 2024, Revised April 2025
Uniform Inference with General Autoregressive Processes
Tassos Magdalinos and Katerina Petrova
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2025
How Do We Learn About the Long Run?
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench, and Bruce Preston
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2025
Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds
Brandyn Bok, Thomas M. Mertens, and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2022, Revised April 2025
Subjective Uncertainty and the Marginal Propensity to Consume
Gizem Kosar and Davide Melcangi
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2025
Tradeoffs for the Poor, Divine Coincidence for the Rich
Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2025
Wage Growth and Labor Market Tightness
Sebastian Heise, Jeremy Pearce, and Jacob P. Weber
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2024, Revised March 2025
Firm Wage Setting and On-the-Job Search Limit Wage-Price Spirals
Justin Bloesch, Seung Joo Lee, and Jacob P. Weber
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2024, Revised February 2025
Input Sourcing Under Supply Chain Risk: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing Firms
Joaquin Blaum, Federico Esposito, and Sebastian Heise
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2025
Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
Ricardo Correa, Julian di Giovanni, Linda S. Goldberg, and Camelia Minoiu
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2023, Revised February 2025
A Jackknife Variance Estimator for Panel Regressions
Richard K. Crump, Nikolay Gospodinov, and Ignacio Lopez Gaffney
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2024, Revised January 2025
The Life-Cycle Dynamics of Wealth Mobility
Richard Audoly, Rory McGee, Sergio Ocampo, and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2024, Revised January 2025
Archive
2024
Corporate Debt Structure over the Global Credit Cycle
Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, December 2024
Corporate Credit Conditions Around the World: Novel Facts Through Holistic Data
Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2023, Revised December 2024
Beta-Sorted Portfolios
Matias D. Cattaneo, Richard K. Crump, and Weining Wang
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, July 2023, Revised November 2024
Is There Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis?
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, and Emanuel Moench
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2024, Revised November 2024
Firms’ Supply Chain Adaptation to Carbon Taxes
Pierre Coster, Julian di Giovanni, and Isabelle Mejean
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2024
Who Collaborates with the Soviets? Financial Distress and Technology Transfer During the Great Depression
Jerry Jiang and Jacob P. Weber
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2024
A Simple Diagnostic for Time-Series and Panel-Data Regressions
Richard K. Crump, Nikolay Gospodinov, and Ignacio Lopez Gaffney
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2024
Nonlinear Firm Dynamics
Davide Melcangi and Silvia Sarpietro
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2024, Revised October 2024
Need for Speed: Quality of Innovations and the Allocation of Inventors
Santiago Caicedo and Jeremy Pearce
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2024
Unconventional Monetary Policies and Inequality
Donggyu Lee
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, July 2024, Revised October 2024
U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Both Shocks and Vulnerabilities Matter
Shaghil Ahmed, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, June 2021, Revised September 2024
Corporate Bond Market Distress
Nina Boyarchenko, Richard K. Crump, Anna Kovner, and Or Shachar
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, January 2021, Revised September 2024
Brand Reallocation and Market Concentration
Jeremy Pearce and Liangjie Wu
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, September 2024
Monetary Policy across Inflation Regimes
Valeria Gargiulo, Christian Matthes, and Katerina Petrova
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, January 2024, Revised August 2024
On the Validity of Classical and Bayesian DSGE-Based Inference
Katerina Petrova
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, January 2024, Revised August 2024
Deconstructing the Yield Curve
Richard K. Crump and Nikolay Gospodinov
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, April 2019, Revised August 2024
Measurement and Theory of Core Inflation
Martín Almuzara and Argia M. Sbordone
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, August 2024
A Bayesian Approach for Inference on Probabilistic Surveys
Federico Bassetti, Roberto Casarin, and Marco Del Negro
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, July 2022, Revised August 2024
Financing Private Credit
Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, August 2024
Nonlinear Binscatter Methods
Matias D. Cattaneo, Richard K. Crump, Max H. Farrell, and Yingjie Feng
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, August 2024
Pandemic-Era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers
Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yıldırım
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2023, Revised July 2024
The Countercyclical Benefits of Regulatory Costs
Alexander Mechanick and Jacob P. Weber
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, July 2024
The Nonlinear Case Against Leaning Against the Wind
Nina Boyarchenko, Richard K. Crump, Keshav Dogra, Leonardo Elias, and Ignacio Lopez Gaffney
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, May 2024
The Global Credit Cycle
Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2024
Paradoxes and Problems in the Causal Interpretation of Equilibrium Economics
Keshav Dogra
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2024
Miss-Allocation: The Value of Workplace Gender Composition and Occupational Segregation
Rachel Schuh
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2024
Spillovers and Spillbacks
Sushant Acharya and Paolo Pesenti
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2024
The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, and Ayşegül Şahin
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2024
Capital Management and Wealth Inequality
James Best and Keshav Dogra
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, September 2023, Revised January 2024
Self-Employment and Labor Market Risks
Richard Audoly
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, January 2024
The New York Fed DSGE Model: A Post-Covid Assessment
Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Aidan Gleich, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, Ramya Nallamotu, and Brian Pacula
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, January 2024
2023
The Optimal Supply of Central Bank Reserves under Uncertainty
Gara Afonso, Gabriele La Spada, Thomas M. Mertens, and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2023, Revised December 2023
Is the Green Transition Inflationary?
Marco Del Negro, Julian di Giovanni, and Keshav Dogra
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2023, Revised December 2023
On Binscatter
Matias D. Cattaneo, Richard K. Crump, Max H. Farrell, and Yingjie Feng
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2019, Revised November 2023
Congestion in Onboarding Workers and Sticky R&D
Justin Bloesch and Jacob P. Weber
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2023
Estimating HANK for Central Banks
Sushant Acharya, William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Aidan Gleich, Shlok Goyal, Ethan Matlin, Donggyu Lee, Reca Sarfati, and Sikata Sengupta
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, August 2023
Buy Big or Buy Small? Procurement Policies, Firms' Financing, and the Macroeconomy
Julian di Giovanni, Manuel García-Santana, Priit Jeenas, Enrique Moral-Benito, and Josep Pijoan-Mas
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2022, Revised June 2023
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest after COVID-19
Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach, and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, June 2023
Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data
Keshav Dogra, Sebastian Heise, Edward S. Knotek II, Brent H. Meyer, Robert W. Rich, Raphael S. Schoenle, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Wändi Bruine de Bruin
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, June 2023
The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**
Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Benigno, Marco Del Negro, and Albert Queralto
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2020, Revised May 2023
The Bitcoin–Macro Disconnect
Gianluca Benigno and Carlo Rosa
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2023
Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus under Supply Constraints
Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yıldırım
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2023
2022
The Dollar’s Imperial Circle
Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Benigno, Serra Pelin , and Jonathan Turek
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, December 2022
Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects
Daniel J. Lewis
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, June 2019, Revised July 2022
Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation
Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yıldırım
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, July 2022
Micro and Macro Effects of UI Policies: Evidence from Missouri
Fatih Karahan, Kurt Mitman, and Brendan Moore
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, December 2019, Revised April 2022
A New Approach to Assess Inflation Expectations Anchoring Using Strategic Surveys
Olivier Armantier, Argia M. Sbordone, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2022
Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms
Andrea Ajello, Nina Boyarchenko, Francois Gourio, and Andrea Tambalotti
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2022
More
Subsidizing Startups under Imperfect Information
Davide Melcangi and Javier Turen
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, December 2021
A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Domenico Giannone, Eric Qian, and Argia M. Sbordone
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, August 2021
Fundamental Disagreement about Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Shuo Cao, Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, and Emanuel Moench
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, July 2020, Revised August 2021
Latent Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume
Daniel J. Lewis, Davide Melcangi, and Laura Pilossoph
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2019, Revised July 2021
Firms’ Precautionary Savings and Employment during a Credit Crisis
Davide Melcangi
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2019, Revised July 2021
Interest, Reserves, and Prices
Gianluca Benigno and Pierpaolo Benigno
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, June 2021
U.S. Market Concentration and Import Competition
Mary Amiti and Sebastian Heise
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, May 2021
Aggregate Output Measurements: A Common Trend Approach
Martín Almuzara, Gabriele Fiorentini, and Enrique Sentana
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2021
Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit
Fatih Karahan, Benjamin Pugsley, and Ayşegül Şahin
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, May 2019, Revised March 2021
Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations
Julian di Giovanni, Andrei A. Levchenko, and Isabelle Mejean
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, November 2020
Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
Gianluca Benigno, Andrew Foerster, Christopher Otrok, and Alessandro Rebucci
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2020
Measuring Global Financial Market Stresses
Jan J. J. Groen, Michael Nattinger, and Adam I. Noble
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, September 2020
Stock Market Participation, Inequality, and Monetary Policy
Davide Melcangi and Vincent Sterk
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, July 2020
Uncertainty about Trade Policy Uncertainty
Gianluca Benigno and Jan J. J. Groen
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, March 2020
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK
Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe, and Keshav Dogra
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2020
The Global Financial Resource Curse
Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro, and Martin Wolf
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, February 2020
Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?
Daniel J. Lewis, Christos Makridis, and Karel Mertens
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, September 2019, Revised January 2020
Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job Ladder Risk vs. Human Capital
Fatih Karahan, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, December 2019
Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability
Gianluca Benigno, Huigang Chen, Christopher Otrok, Alessandro Rebucci, and Eric R. Young
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2019
Spatial Wage Gaps and Frictional Labor Markets
Sebastian Heise and Tommaso Porzio
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2019
Firm-to-Firm Relationships and the Pass-Through of Shocks: Theory and Evidence
Sebastian Heise
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, August 2019
Online Estimation of DSGE Models
Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Edward Herbst, Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati, and Frank Schorfheide
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, August 2019
Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates
Thomas M. Mertens and John C. Williams
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, January 2019, Revised July 2019
Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets
Ozge Akinci and Albert Queralto
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, June 2018, Revised May 2019
The Time-Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market
Andreas Fuster, Stephanie H. Lo, and Paul Willen
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, January 2017
Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Macro Effects
Marcus Hagedorn, Fatih Karahan, Iourii Manovskii, and Kurt Mitman
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, October 2013
Analysis
Liberty Street Economics
How Uncertain Is the Estimated Probability of a Future Recession?
May 2025
Who Finances Real Sector Lenders?
May 2025
Monetary Policy Spillovers in the Global Economy
April 2025
Monetary Policy Spillovers and the Role of the Dollar
April 2025
How Household Saving Affects Monetary Policy Spillovers
April 2025
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2025
March 2025
Comparing Apples to Apples: “Synthetic Real Time” Estimates of R Star
March 2025
Global Trends in U.S. Inflation Dynamics
February 2025
Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Inflation
February 2025
The R&D Puzzle in U.S. Manufacturing Productivity Growth
January 2025
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2024
December 2024
Do Import Tariffs Protect U.S. Firms?
December 2024
Using Stock Returns to Assess the Aggregate Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War
December 2024
International Stock Markets’ Reactions to EU Climate Policy Shocks
October 2024
Archive
2024
Can Professional Forecasters Predict Uncertain Times?
September 2024
Are Professional Forecasters Overconfident?
September 2024
A New Set of Indicators of Reserve Ampleness
August 2024
When Are Central Bank Reserves Ample?
August 2024
The Mysterious Slowdown in U.S. Manufacturing Productivity 
July 2024
On the Distributional Consequences of Responding Aggressively to Inflation
July 2024
On the Distributional Effects of Inflation and Inflation Stabilization
July 2024
Deciphering the Disinflation Process
June 2024
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2024
June 2024
The Changing Landscape of Corporate Credit
May 2024
Is the Recent Inflationary Spike a Global Phenomenon?
May 2024
Has Market Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Increased?
May 2024
What Happens to U.S. Activity and Inflation if China’s Property Sector Leads to a Crisis?
March 2024
What if China Manufactures a Sugar High?
March 2024
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2024
March 2024
Will the Moderation in Wage Growth Continue?
March 2024
Expectations and the Final Mile of Disinflation
March 2024
Global Supply Chains and U.S. Import Price Inflation
March 2024
Measuring Price Inflation and Growth in Economic Well-Being with Income-Dependent Preferences
January 2024
2023
Does Trade Uncertainty Affect Bank Lending?
December 2023
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2023
December 2023
The New York Fed DSGE Model Perspective on the Lagged Effect of Monetary Policy
November 2023
A Bayesian VAR Model Perspective on the Lagged Effect of Monetary Policy
November 2023
Do Large Firms Generate Positive Productivity Spillovers?
October 2023
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2023
September 2023
Reintroducing the New York Fed Staff Nowcast
September 2023
How Large are Inflation Revisions? The Difficulty of Monitoring Prices in Real Time
September 2023
The Evolution of Short-Run r* after the Pandemic
August 2023
The Post-Pandemic r*
August 2023
Where Is Inflation Persistence Coming From?
July 2023
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2023
June 2023
MCT Update: Inflation Persistence Declined Significantly in April
June 2023
Do Economic Crises in Europe Affect the U.S.? Some Lessons from the Past Three Decades
May 2023
Measuring the Financial Stability Real Interest Rate, r**
May 2023
Financial Stability and Interest Rates
May 2023
Financial Vulnerability and Macroeconomic Fragility
May 2023
Look Out for Outlook-at-Risk
May 2023
MCT Update: Inflation Persistence Declined Modestly in February
April 2023
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2023
March 2023
Inflation Persistence: Dissecting the News in January PCE data
March 2023
The Dollar’s Imperial Circle
March 2023
A Turning Point in Wage Growth?
February 2023
How Much Can GSCPI Improvements Help Reduce Inflation?
February 2023
How Have Swings in Demand Affected Global Supply Chain Pressures?
February 2023
What Is “Outlook-at-Risk?”
February 2023
Is the Green Transition Inflationary?
February 2023
How much can the Fed’s Tightening Contract Global Economic Activity?
February 2023
Is There a Bitcoin–Macro Disconnect?
February 2023
Inflation Persistence—An Update with December Data
February 2023
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: The China Factor
January 2023
The Layers of Inflation Persistence
January 2023
2022
Supply Chains, Student Debt, and Stablecoins—The Top 5 Liberty Street Economics Posts of 2022
December 2022
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2022
December 2022
What Have Workers Done with the Time Freed up by Commuting Less?
October 2022
Short-Dated Term Premia and the Level of Inflation
September 2022
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2022
September 2022
How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation?
August 2022
Pass-Through of Wages and Import Prices Has Increased in the Post-COVID Period
August 2022
Pandemic Wage Pressures
August 2022
Climate Change: Implications for Macroeconomics
July 2022
How Could Oil Price and Policy Rate Hikes Affect the Near-Term Inflation Outlook?
June 2022
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022
June 2022
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: May 2022 Update
May 2022
Inflation Persistence: How Much Is There and Where Is It Coming From?
April 2022
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2022
March 2022
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update
March 2022
Disinflation Policies with a Flat Phillips Curve
March 2022
Drivers of Inflation: The New York Fed DSGE Model’s Perspective
March 2022
The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures
January 2022
The Effect of Inequality on the Transmission of Monetary and Fiscal Policy
January 2022
The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Inequality
January 2022
A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
January 2022
When Will U.S. Exports Take Off?
January 2022
More
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2021
December 2021
High Import Prices along the Global Supply Chain Feed Through to U.S. Domestic Prices
November 2021
Hey, Economist! Tell Us about the New Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center
November 2021
Oil Prices, Global Demand Expectations, and Near-Term Global Inflation
October 2021
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2021
September 2021
Has Market Power of U.S. Firms Increased?
June 2021
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2021
June 2021
COVID-19 and Small Businesses: Uneven Patterns by Race and Income
May 2021
How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Affect Emerging Market Economics?
May 2021
Who’s Ready to Spend? Constrained Consumption across the Income Distribution
May 2021
Many Small Businesses in the Services Sector Are Unlikely to Reopen
May 2021
“Excess Savings” Are Not Excessive
April 2021
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2021
March 2021
The Persistent Compression of the Breakeven Inflation Curve
March 2021
Measuring the Forest through the Trees: The Corporate Bond Market Distress Index
February 2021
Black and White Differences in the Labor Market Recovery from COVID-19
February 2021
Discretionary and Nondiscretionary Services Expenditures during the COVID-19 Recession
January 2021
The International Spillover of U.S. Monetary Policy via Global Production Linkages
January 2021
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2020
December 2020
Should Emerging Economies Embrace Quantitative Easing during the Pandemic?
October 2020
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2020
September 2020
How Did State Reopenings Affect Small Businesses?
September 2020
Did State Reopenings Increase Consumer Spending?
September 2020
What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?
September 2020
Tracking the COVID-19 Economy with the Weekly Economic Index (WEI)
August 2020
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2020
June 2020
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2020
June 2020
Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?
May 2020
The Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities
May 2020
Modeling the Global Effects of the COVID-19 Sudden Stop in Capital Flows
May 2020
The Commercial Paper Funding Facility
May 2020
Putting the Current Oil Price Collapse into Historical Perspective
May 2020
How Did China’s COVID-19 Shutdown Affect U.S. Supply Chains?
May 2020
Translating Weekly Jobless Claims into Monthly Net Job Losses
May 2020
Monitoring Real Activity in Real Time: The Weekly Economic Index
March 2020
Is the Tide Lifting All Boats? A Closer Look at the Earnings Growth Experience of U.S. Workers
March 2020
Understanding Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Models: Insights from a PRANK
February 2020
Firm-Level Shocks and GDP Growth: The Case of Boeing’s 737 MAX Production Pause
February 2020
Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two
February 2020
Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One
February 2020
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2019
December 2019
Real Inventory Slowdowns
November 2019
Trade Policy Uncertainty May Affect the Organization of Firms’ Supply Chains
November 2019
Job Ladders and Careers
October 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2019
September 2019
Minimum Wage Impacts along the New York-Pennsylvania Border
September 2019
Online Estimation of DSGE Models
August 2019
Historical Reconstruction of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, 2002-15
July 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2019
June 2019
Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast—April 2019
April 2019
The Keynesian Growth Approach to Macroeconomic Policy and Productivity
April 2019
Expecting the Unexpected: Job Losses and Household Spending
March 2019
Global Trends in Interest Rates
February 2019
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—January 2019
February 2019
Monitoring Economic Conditions during a Government Shutdown
February 2019
The Perplexing Co-Movement of the Dollar and Oil Prices
January 2019
The Impact of Import Tariffs on U.S. Domestic Prices
January 2019
Opening the Toolbox: The Nowcasting Code on GitHub
August 2018
A Monthly Underlying Inflation Gauge
September 2017
Measuring Trend Inflation with the Underlying Inflation Gauge
May 2017
Forecasting with Julia
May 2017
Introducing the FRBNY Nowcast
April 2016
The FRBNY DSGE Model Meets Julia
December 2015
Discounting the Long Run
August 2015
Past Events
AMEC Symposium on “Whither R-Star?"
This hybrid symposium focused on the level, determinants, and relevance of the natural rate of interest, r-star. Topics included: the real and financial drivers of r-star, international dimensions of r-star, and the usefulness of r-star as a guide for policy.
March 28, 2025
 
AMEC Symposium on “The U.S. Labor Market in the 21st Century"
This hybrid symposium stimulated a thought-provoking debate among academics, practitioners, and policymakers on the state of the U.S. labor market currently and over the next decade.
November 22, 2024
 
New York Fed Junior Macro Workshop
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York organized a one-day, in-person workshop for junior researchers in macroeconomics.
September 27, 2024
 
U.S. Productivity Growth: Looking Ahead
This hybrid AMEC symposium covered themes including work from home and the future of cities; AI, tech, and the future of productivity growth; and the major structural forces shaping productivity growth over the next decade.
February 16, 2024
 
ARCHIVE
2023
The Global Economy after COVID
The goal of the symposium, which was organized by the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center, was to stimulate a thought-provoking debate among academics, practitioners, and policymakers on the shape of the global economy in the next decade.
April 12, 2023
 
The Credibility of Government Policies
Between February 22-24, Columbia University and the NY Fed jointly hosted a conference in honor of Guillermo Calvo.
February 22-24, 2023
 
2022
Inflation: Risks, Implications, and Policies
The goal of the symposium was to stimulate a thought-provoking debate among participants—who included academics, practitioners, and policymakers—on the implications of high inflation and the policies needed to combat it.
November 4, 2022

Climate Change: Implications for Macroeconomics
The goal of the Symposium was to stimulate a thought-provoking debate on the topic of climate change and its implications for the macroeconomy.
May 13, 2022

 
2021
Symposium on Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics
On November 12, participants examined the effect of monetary and fiscal policy on inequality, with particular emphasis on the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic.
November 12, 2021
MEET THE ECONOMISTS
AMEC NEW YORK FED GITHUB
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