Overview
Building on the success of previous editions in 2019 and 2021, the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in partnership with the Center For Microeconomic Data, are organizing the third joint conference on expectations surveys, to be held on October 13 and 14 at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The aim of the conference is to bring together scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys.
Over the past decade, researchers and central banks have started to collect survey data on expectations from consumers, economists, professional forecasters, and firms. These surveys provide insights into how economic agents form and update their expectations, the heterogeneity and biases in these expectations, and how these expectations feed into economic decisions that can have wide implications for the economy and for monetary policy. The conference program will feature two plenary keynote sessions by Francesca Molinari (Cornell University) and Orazio Attanasio (Yale University).
Audience
This event is open to the public and media virtually.
Media
All remarks will be on the record, with a recording to be made available afterward. Media who wish to register to attend virtually should contact Mariah Measey at mariah.measey@ny.frb.org.
Organizing Committee
Olivier Armantier (New York Fed)
Maarten Dossche (ECB)
Dimitris Georgarakos (ECB)
Kim Huynh (BoC)
Monica Jain (BoC)
Geoff Kenny (ECB)
Gizem Kosar (New York Fed)
Olena Kostyshyna (BoC)
Jason Somerville (New York Fed)
Wilbert van der Klaauw (New York Fed)
Event Details
Location
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
Agenda
| October 13, 2022 |
|
| 8:30am | Registration and Breakfast |
| 8:50am | Welcoming Remarks |
| 9:00am | Polarized Expectations Rupal Kamdar, Indiana University Walker Ray, London School of Economics The Curious Case of the Rise in Deflation Expectations Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Jason Somerville, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Wealth Shocks and Portfolio Choice Dimitris Christelis, University of Glasgow Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank Tullio Jappelli, University of Naples Federico II Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank |
| 10:30am | Coffee Break |
| 11:00am | Special Lecture Luigi Guiso, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance |
| 12:00pm | Lunch |
| 1:00pm | Perceived Returns to Job Search Abi Adams-Prassl, University of Oxford Teodora Boneva, University of Bonn Marta Golin, University of Zurich Christopher Rauh, University of Cambridge Examining Income Expectations in the College and Early Post-College Periods: New Distributional Tests of Rational Expectations Thomas F. Crossley, European University Institute Yifan Gong, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Ralph Stinebrickner, Berea College Todd Stinebrickner, University of Western Ontario Understanding Socioeconomic Differences in College Outcomes Esteban M. Aucejo, Arizona State University Jacob French, New York University Stern School of Business Basit Zafar, University of Michigan |
| 2:30pm | Coffee Break |
| 3:00pm | Plenary Lecture 1 Francesca Molinari, Cornell University |
| 4:00pm | Coffee Break |
| 4:15pm | Household Climate Finance: Theory and Survey Data on Safe and Risky Green Assets Shifrah Aron-Dine, Stanford University Johannes Beutel, Deutsche Bundesbank Monika Piazzesi, Stanford University Martin Schneider, Stanford University Estimating Individual Responses When Tomorrow Matters Stéphane Bonhomme, University of Chicago Angela Denis, Banco de España Perceived Ambiguity about COVID-Related Health Outcomes and Protective Health Behaviors among Young Adults Adeline Delavande, University of Technology Sydney Emilia Del Bono, University of Essex Angus Holford, University of Essex |
| 5:45pm | Reception |
| 6:45pm | Dinner |
| October 14 |
|
| 8:30am | Breakfast |
| 9:00am | Betting on the House Nicolas Bottan, Cornell University Ricardo Perez-Truglia, UC Berkeley Haas School of Business Price Rigidities, Input Costs, and Inflation Expectations: Understanding Firms' Pricing Decisions from Microdata Marianna Riggi, Bank of Italy Alex Tagliabracci, Bank of Italy Reactions of Household Inflation Expectations to a Symmetric Inflation Target and High Inflation Gabriele Galati, De Nederlandsche Bank Richhild Moessner, Bank for International Settlements Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank How to Limit the Spillover from the 2021 Inflation Surge to Inflation Expectations Lena Dräger, Leibniz University Michael J. Lamla, Leuphana University Damjan Pfajfar, Federal Reserve Board |
| 11:00am | Coffee Break |
| 11:30am | Plenary Lecture 2 Orazio Attanasio, Yale University |
| 12:30pm | Lunch |
| 1:30pm | Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Edward S. Knotek, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland John Leer, Morning Consult Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Robert Rich, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation? Monica Jain, Bank of Canada Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada Xu Zhang, Bank of Canada A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy Rüdiger Bachmann, University of Notre Dame Benjamin Born, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Deutsche Bundesbank Georgi Kocharkov, Deutsche Bundesbank Ralph Luetticke, University of Tübingen Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School of Business |
| 3:00pm | Closing Remarks |
Speakers
Senior Economist
Deutsche Bundesbank
Associate Professor of Macroeconomics
Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
Assistant Professor
Cornell University
Professor of Economics
University of Technology Sydney
Research Economist
Banco de España
Assistant Professor of Economics
New York University Stern School of Business
Team Lead - Economist
European Central Bank
Research Affiliate
University of Zurich
Assistant Professor
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Assistant Professor
Indiana University of Bloomington
Senior Vice President and Associate Research Director
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Senior Analyst
Bank of Canada
Group Manager
Federal Reserve Board
Economic Research Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Economist
Banca d'Italia
Senior Economist
De Nederlandsche Bank
Senior Economist
Bank of Canada
