Authors: Olivier Armantier, Argia M. Sbordone, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams
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Staff Reports
A New Approach to Assess Inflation Expectations Anchoring Using Strategic Surveys
Number 1007
February 2022
February 2022
JEL classification: D12, D84, E31, E52
We propose a new approach to assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations using “strategic surveys.”
Namely, we measure households’ revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented
with different economic scenarios. A key advantage of this approach is that it provides a causal
interpretation in terms of how inflation events affect long-run inflation expectations. We implement the
method in the summer of 2019 and the spring-summer of 2021 when the anchoring of long-run inflation
expectations was in question. We find that the risk of unanchoring of expectations was reasonably low in
both periods, and that long-run inflation expectations were essentially as well anchored in August 2021 as
in July 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.
See the appendix below for the survey questionnaire designed for this study.
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