Fire-Sale Spillovers and Systemic Risk - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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Fire-Sale Spillovers and Systemic Risk

October 2013 Number 645
Revised: December 2019

JEL classification: G01, G10, G18, G20, G21, G23, G28, G32

Authors: Fernando Duarte and Thomas Eisenbach

We identify and track over time the factors that make the financial system vulnerable to fire sales by constructing an index of aggregate vulnerability. The index starts increasing quickly in 2004, before most other major systemic risk measures, and triples by 2008. The fire-sale-specific factors of delevering speed and concentration of illiquid assets account for the majority of this increase. Individual banks’ contributions to aggregate vulnerability predict other firm-specific measures of systemic risk, including SRISK and DCoVaR. The balance sheet-based measures we propose are therefore a useful early indicator of when and where vulnerabilities are building up.

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