Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

Museum & Visits Regional Economy Data & Statistics Careers Blog Press Center

About the New York Fed
- About the New York Fed
- What We Do
- Who We Are
  - Bank Leadership
  - Diversity and Inclusion
- Communities We Serve
- Governance
- More About Us
- At the New York Fed, our mission is to make the U.S. economy stronger and the financial system more stable for all segments of society. We do this by executing monetary policy, providing financial services, supervising banks and conducting research and providing expertise on issues that impact the nation and communities we serve.
  
  The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
  
  Do you have a request for information and records? Learn how to submit it.
  
  Learn about the history of the New York Fed and central banking in the United States through articles, speeches, photos and video.
Markets & Policy Implementation

Economic Research
- Economic Research
- U.S. Economy
  - Consumer Expectations & Behavior
  - Growth & Inflation
  - Labor Market
  - Financial Stability
  - Banking
- REGIONAL ECONOMY
- RESEARCHERS
  - PUBLICATIONS
  - RESEARCH CENTERS
  - CALENDAR

Financial Institution Supervision
- Financial Institution Supervision
- Supervision & Regulation
  - Circulars
  - Regulations
- Reporting Forms & Instructions
  - Reporting Forms
  - Correspondence
- Bank Applications
- Consumer Protection
  - Community Reinvestment Act Exams
  - Frauds and Scams
- As part of our core mission, we supervise and regulate financial institutions in the Second District. Our primary objective is to maintain a safe and competitive U.S. and global banking system.
  
  The Governance & Culture Reform hub is designed to foster discussion about corporate governance and the reform of culture and behavior in the financial services industry.
  
  Need to file a report with the New York Fed? Here are all of the forms, instructions and other information related to regulatory and statistical reporting in one spot.
  
  The New York Fed works to protect consumers as well as provides information and resources on how to avoid and report specific scams.
Financial Services & Infrastructure
- Financial Services & Infrastructure
- Financial Services & Operations
- Financial Market Infrastructure & Reform
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York works to promote sound and well-functioning financial systems and markets through its provision of industry and payment services, advancement of infrastructure reform in key markets and training and educational support to international institutions.
  
  The New York Innovation Center bridges the worlds of finance, technology, and innovation and generates insights into high-value central bank-related opportunities.
  
  The growing role of nonbank financial institutions, or NBFIs, in U.S. financial markets is a transformational trend with implications for monetary policy and financial stability.
  
  The New York Fed offers the Central Banking Seminar and several specialized courses for central bankers and financial supervisors.
Community Development
& Education

Staff Reports

Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks

Number 914
February 2020

JEL classification: C22, E17, E37

Authors: Patrick Adams, Tobias Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko, and Domenico Giannone

We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are time-varying, asymmetric, and partly predictable. Tight financial conditions forecast downside growth risk, upside unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the inflation forecast. Growth vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and conditional variance of GDP growth are negatively correlated: downside risks are driven by lower mean and higher variance when financial conditions tighten. Similarly, employment vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and conditional variance of unemployment are positively correlated, with tighter financial conditions corresponding to higher forecasted unemployment and higher variance around the consensus forecast.

Available only in PDF

Author Disclosure Statement(s)

Patrick Adams
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.

Tobias Adrian
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.

Nina Boyarchenko
The author declares that she has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.

Domenico Giannone
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.

By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Statement. You can learn more about how we use cookies by reviewing our Privacy Statement.