Authors: Gianluca Benigno and Jan J. J. Groen
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Staff Reports
Uncertainty about Trade Policy Uncertainty
Number 919
March 2020
March 2020
JEL classification: C11, C22
We revisit in this note the macroeconomic impact of the recent rise in trade policy uncertainty. As in the literature, we do find that high trade policy uncertainty can adversely impact domestic and foreign economic activity. In addition, we identify an alternative business sentiment channel that is separate and distinct from the impact of trade policy uncertainty, which provides a complementary explanation of the recent developments in the U.S. and global economic activities. This sentiment channel also implies that subsiding trade policy uncertainty does not necessarily result in a recovery of the manufacturing sector and investment spending as long as business sentiment remains negative.
Author Disclosure Statement(s)
Gianluca Benigno
(1) Every submitted article should state the sources of financial support for the particular research it describes. If none, that fact should be stated.
I have not received any financial support for this research.
(2) Each author of a submitted article should identify each interested party from whom he or she has received significant financial support, summing to at least $10,000 in the past three years, in the form of consultant fees, retainers, grants and the like. The disclosure requirement also includes in-kind support, such as providing access to data. If the support in question comes with a non-disclosure obligation, that fact should be stated, along with as much information as the obligation permits. If there are no such sources of funds, that fact should be stated explicitly. An “interested” party is any individual, group, or organization that has a financial, ideological, or political stake related to the article.
I have not received any sources of funds for this research.
(3) Each author should disclose any paid or unpaid positions as officer, director, or board member of relevant non-profit organizations or profit-making entities. A “relevant” organization is one whose policy positions, goals, or financial interests relate to the article.
I hold no paid or unpaid position in any “relevant” organization.
(4) The disclosures required above apply to any close relative or partner of any author.
No close relative or partner meets any of the criteria in any of the above disclosures.
(5) Each author must disclose if another party had the right to review the paper prior to its circulation.
Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
(6) For published articles, information on relevant potential conflicts of interest will be made available to the public.
I agree that this disclosure statement will be made available to the public.
Jan J. J. Groen
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
(1) Every submitted article should state the sources of financial support for the particular research it describes. If none, that fact should be stated.
I have not received any financial support for this research.
(2) Each author of a submitted article should identify each interested party from whom he or she has received significant financial support, summing to at least $10,000 in the past three years, in the form of consultant fees, retainers, grants and the like. The disclosure requirement also includes in-kind support, such as providing access to data. If the support in question comes with a non-disclosure obligation, that fact should be stated, along with as much information as the obligation permits. If there are no such sources of funds, that fact should be stated explicitly. An “interested” party is any individual, group, or organization that has a financial, ideological, or political stake related to the article.
I have not received any sources of funds for this research.
(3) Each author should disclose any paid or unpaid positions as officer, director, or board member of relevant non-profit organizations or profit-making entities. A “relevant” organization is one whose policy positions, goals, or financial interests relate to the article.
I hold no paid or unpaid position in any “relevant” organization.
(4) The disclosures required above apply to any close relative or partner of any author.
No close relative or partner meets any of the criteria in any of the above disclosures.
(5) Each author must disclose if another party had the right to review the paper prior to its circulation.
Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
(6) For published articles, information on relevant potential conflicts of interest will be made available to the public.
I agree that this disclosure statement will be made available to the public.
Jan J. J. Groen
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
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