A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Note: Survey responses were collected between February 3 and February 11. Download the full report ![]() |
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Business activity declined modestly in the region’s service sector in February, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell five points to -10.5, its lowest level in more than a year. The business climate index fell fourteen points to -35.6, suggesting the business climate was considerably worse than normal. Employment declined modestly, and wage growth accelerated. Supply availability worsened for the first time since 2022. Input and selling price increases picked up. Looking ahead, firms expect conditions to improve in the months ahead, though optimism dropped noticeably.
Activity Drops
Business activity declined in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, according to the February survey. The headline business activity index fell five points to -10.5, its lowest level since December 2023. Twenty-two percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month and 32 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index remained negative at -35.6, suggesting the business climate was considerably worse than normal. Employment Contracts
The employment index moved down to -5.7, signaling that employment levels were somewhat lower than last month. The wages index rose eight points to 41.8, indicating that wage increases picked up. The prices paid index edged up three points to 51.3, a sign that input prices increased at a slightly faster pace than last month. The prices received index climbed for a second consecutive month, rising eight points to 27.4, its highest level in nearly a year. The supply availability index dropped fifteen points to -10.4, its lowest level since May 2022, suggesting supply availability worsened. Optimism Falls
The index for future business activity fell nine points to 21.6, suggesting firms were less optimistic than last month. The index for the future business climate fell seventeen points, dropping into negative territory, a sign that the business climate is expected to be worse than normal in six months. The future supply availability index plunged twenty-five points to -20.7, with about a third of firms expecting supply availability to be worse in six months. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025 |
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes Historical Tables |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |