NEW YORK —The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the April 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Public Policy Survey, which provides information on individuals’ expectations regarding future changes in a wide range of public policies. Compared to the year prior, the April 2024 survey shows increases in consumers’ expectations regarding expansions in federal student aid, student debt forgiveness and federal welfare programs, and a rise in unemployment benefits and in the federal minimum wage. However, expectations about future tax and fee increases were mixed. While expectations of increases in the payroll tax rate and in-state public college tuition fees rose, expectations regarding a rise in the income tax rate on the highest income bracket and in the capital gains tax rate declined. The perceived likelihood of a year-ahead increase in the mortgage interest deduction reached a new series’ high.
Key findings from the April 2024 Survey are:
Expectations about Public Assistance and Social Insurance Programs
- The average likelihood of an increase in housing assistance or affordable housing has remained relatively stable over the past year, with an April 2024 reading of 34.6%, down from 36.6% in April 2023. The average likelihood of an expansion in free or subsidized public preschool education has been relatively stable, increasing slightly to 32.8% from 31.1% a year ago.
- The mean probabilities assigned to an expansion in federal student aid or Pell grants (32.9%) and in federal student debt forgiveness (39.0%) both rose sharply in April 2024 compared to the April 2023 levels of 27.3% and 31.4%, respectively. These are the highest readings since August 2022 for both series.
- The average perceived likelihood of an increase in federal welfare and unemployment benefits increased to 36% and 30.4%, respectively, from 30.3% and 25.1% in April 2023. Both series remain at levels higher than those observed before the pandemic.
- The average likelihood of a rise in Medicare and Social Security benefits both increased, to 28.1% and 28.2% in April 2024, respectively, from 25.5% and 24.7% in April 2023.
Expectations about Labor Market Policies
- Prospects of an increase in the federal minimum wage rose sharply to 38.3% in April 2024 from 33.6% in December 2023 and 30.9% in April 2023.
- The average perceived likelihood of an expansion in paid parental leave over the next 12 months declined to 25.9% in April 2024 from 27.7% a year ago. The series remains somewhat above the levels observed before the 2020 presidential election.
Expectations about Taxes and Fees
- The average likelihood of an increase in the mortgage interest deduction has reached a series high of 24.8% in April 2024, from 21.1% in April 2023.
- The average probability of an increase over the next 12 months in the capital gains tax rate declined to 35.8% in April 2024, from 38.8% in April 2023. Conversely, the average perceived likelihood of an increase in the gasoline tax rate increased to 54.4% in April 2024, from 52.3% a year ago. Both readings are well above the levels seen before the 2020 election.
- The average probability of an increase in the income tax rate for the highest income bracket declined slightly to 41.0% in April 2024 from 42.7% a year ago. The mean likelihood of an increase in the average income tax rate increased to 45.0% in April 2024 from 42.6% in December 2023 and 43.8% in April 2023, remaining well above the levels observed prior to the 2020 election, but below the levels observed immediately after.
- The average probability of an increase in the payroll tax rose to 44.9% in April 2024 from 37.7% in April 2023, the highest level since August 2021.
- The average perceived likelihood of an increase in the state’s public college tuition increased to a new series’ high of 52.2% in April 2024, from 50.3% in April 2023.
Detailed results are available here.
About the SCE Public Policy Survey
The SCE Public Policy Survey, fielded as part of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), provides information on consumers’ outlook on public policy changes over the next year. The survey is fielded every four months, and a press release about the module is released annually to cover overall trends.
For this survey, SCE panelists are asked details about their expectations for year-ahead changes in twenty different public policy instruments, grouped into five broad categories: assistance programs, social insurance programs, labor market policies, taxes, and fees. The SCE Public Policy Survey also solicits information on the expected impact of such shifts on their households. More information on the SCE Public Policy Survey, including the interactive chart guide, can be found here.
