The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between September 3 and September 10.
Manufacturing activity expanded in New York State for the first time since November of last year, according to the September survey. The general business conditions index rose sixteen points to 11.5. The new orders index climbed seventeen points to 9.4, a multi-year high, pointing to a modest increase in orders, while the shipments index rose eighteen points to 17.9, its highest level in about a year and a half, signaling strong growth in shipments. Unfilled orders were little changed. The inventories index rose eleven points to 0.0, indicating that inventories were level after declining for the prior two months. The delivery times index rose to -1.1, suggesting that delivery times were little changed, and the supply availability index came in at -2.1, a sign that supply availability was slightly lower.
The index for number of employees came in at -5.7, pointing to another month of modest employment reductions. After a steep drop last month, the average workweek index recovered to 2.9, signaling a slight increase in hours worked. Price indexes were little changed: the prices paid index was 23.2, and the prices received index remained low at 7.4.
Firms grew more optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead. The index for future business activity moved up eight points to 30.6, with 45 percent of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. However, the capital spending index fell eleven points to -2.1, dipping below zero for the first time since 2020.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
JAN
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FEB
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MAR
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APR
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16 report
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15 report
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15 report
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15 report
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MAY
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JUN
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JUL
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AUG
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15 report
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17 report
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15 report
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15 report
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SEP
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OCT
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NOV
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DEC
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16 report
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15
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15
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16
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025