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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between December 2 and December 9.
Manufacturing activity was little changed in New York State, according to the December survey. After shooting up over forty points last month, the general business conditions index fell thirty-one points to 0.2. The new orders and shipments indexes retreated, but remained positive at 6.1 and 9.4, respectively, pointing to modest gains in both orders and shipments. Unfilled orders continued to fall. The inventories index climbed to 10.5, signaling that inventories grew. The delivery times index fell eleven points to -7.4, suggesting that delivery times were shorter, and the supply availability index came in at 1.1, a sign that supply availability was little changed.
Labor market conditions worsened somewhat. The index for number of employees moved down to -5.8, and the average workweek index fell to -3.9, pointing to a small decline in both employment and hours worked. The prices paid index fell seven points to 21.1, and the prices received index declined eight points to 4.2, suggesting that both input and selling price increases moderated.
Firms were fairly optimistic that conditions would continue to improve in the months ahead, though less so than they were in November. The index for future business activity fell nine points to 24.6, with forty-two percent of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months. Inventories are expected to continue to grow, and capital spending plans remained modest.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey
1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
