The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Business activity increased modestly in New York State in February, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 7.1, its fourth positive reading in five months. New orders increased, while shipments held steady. Unfilled orders rose and delivery times were slightly longer. Inventories increased somewhat, while supply availability held steady. Employment and the average workweek increased slightly after falling last month. The pace of input price increases and selling price increases picked up. Capital spending plans strengthened. Firms grew more optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, with employment expected to grow.
Manufacturing activity increased in New York State, according to the February survey. The general business conditions index held steady at 7.1, suggesting activity expanded modestly for a second consecutive month. The new orders index came in at 5.8, pointing to an ongoing increase in orders, while the shipments index dropped seventeen points to -1.0, indicating shipments were flat. The unfilled orders index rose seventeen points to 9.1, and delivery times were slightly longer. Inventories rose. The supply availability index came in at -1.0, suggesting supply availability was little changed from last month.
The index for number of employees rose thirteen points to 4.0 and the average workweek index rose eight points to 2.1, suggesting a small increase in employment levels and hours worked after they declined last month. The pace of both input price and selling price increases picked up: the prices paid index rose six points to 49.1 and the prices received index increased eight points to 22.2.
Firms continued to be optimistic about the outlook. The index for future business conditions rose four points to 34.7. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and employment is expected to grow. The capital expenditures index rose eight points to 18.2, a multi-year high, indicating a strengthening in capital spending plans.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey
1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
