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Economic Research

Liberty Street Economics
Disability in the Labor Market: Earnings
The authors investigate differences in weekly earnings for prime-age (25-54) workers with and without disabilities. They find that, despite workers with disabilities being a very select group from prime-aged people with disabilities, they nevertheless earn considerably less than workers without disabilities. Additionally, with few exceptions, their earnings have remained roughly constant in real terms since the pre-pandemic period.
By Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beck Pierce, and Maxim Pinkovskiy
What Is a Carbon Tariff and Why Is the EU Imposing One?
The European Union introduced the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) in 2005, which is applied to the most polluting manufacturing sectors. However, some firms responded by increasing their reliance on high-emissions imports. To eliminate this workaround, the EU will expand the ETS to imports in 2026 through the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, essentially putting a carbon tariff on imported goods. The authors provide a quantitative analysis of how this could result in changes in domestic prices and emissions.
By Pierre Coster, Julian di Giovanni, and Isabelle Mejean
Which Entrepreneurs Boost Productivity?
Using a comprehensive dataset from Denmark, the authors study who becomes an entrepreneur, along with their hiring and business decisions, and find that a distinct minority are “transformative.” These individuals, who generate disproportionate productivity gains, tend to have high IQ scores, be well-educated, and hire technical (R&D) workers. The authors find that when an economy has more R&D workers and transformative entrepreneurs, they sustain higher long-run productivity growth.
By Ufuk Akcigit, Harun Alp, Jeremy Pearce, and Marta Prato
Tariffs, Trade, and Tumbling Credit Scores: The Top 5 LSE Posts of 2025
Tariffs and the economic challenges facing younger adults made multiple headlines this year, and these themes were reflected in the top five posts of Liberty Street Economics in 2025. A few of these topics included how businesses are responding to higher tariffs, why the U.S. runs a trade deficit, whether a college degree is still worth it, and how the restoration of student loan data to credit reports affected borrowers’ credit scores.
By Maureen Egan
A New Public Data Source: Call Reports from 1959 to 2025
Call Reports are regulatory filings in which commercial banks report their assets, liabilities, income, and other information. They are one of the most-used data sources in banking and finance. The authors describe a new dataset made available on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s public website that contains time-consistent balance sheets and income statements for commercial banks in the United States from 1959 to 2025.
By Sergio Correia, Tiffany Fermin, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner
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Letters of Recommendation in the PhD Job Market: Lessons from Specialized Banks
When banks make lending decisions, they must extract useful signals of a potential borrower's quality from a large set of data. A model of how banks can better extract these signals can be applied to other real-world scenarios, including job market recommendation letters. The authors apply their recent model to how institutions use letters of recommendation to evaluate PhD applicants applying to be new economists, finding that the value of these letters depends on who reads them.
By Kristian Blickle and Cecilia Parlatore
RESEARCH TOPICS
Applied Macroeconomics
and Econometrics Center
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.

Data Releases
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Labor Market Tightness Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
(Updated: Quarterly)

Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
(Updated: Monthly)

The New York Fed DSGE Model
(Updated: Quarterly)

New York Fed Staff Nowcast
(Updated: Weekly)

Outlook-at-Risk
(Updated: Monthly)

Treasury Term Premia
(Updated: Daily)

Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
(Updated: Monthly)
Center for Microeconomic Data
AI generated, people walking in office building.
Labor Market Tightness Index
The HPW Labor Market Tightness Index is an indicator of labor market tightness for summarizing current wage pressures and predicting wage inflation.
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Losses from Natural Disasters
Losses from Natural Disasters provides county-level estimates of the economic and human impact of extreme weather events in the United States.
Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)
RDE estimates provide a quantitative measure of the ampleness of reserves in the U.S. banking system in real time. New data are published monthly.
Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs)
The EHIs are broad-based economic indicators that measure macroeconomic outcomes experienced by different demographic, economic, and geographic groups on both a regional and national level.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI)
The CMDI is a summary metric of corporate bond market functioning based on information from multiple sources including measures of primary market issuance and pricing, secondary market pricing and liquidity conditions, and the relative pricing between traded and nontraded bonds. It updates monthly.
Regional Surveys
Monthly surveys conducted by the New York Fed track the sentiment of executives at regional manufacturing and service-sector firms regarding business conditions.

Data Releases
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Business Leaders Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Regional Business Surveys:
Special Topics
(Updated: Quarterly)
Regional Employment Trends
These interactive charts track employment in state and metro regions in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, utilizing the New York Fed’s early benchmarks of payroll employment data. It updates monthly.
Mapping Home Price Changes
Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
Labor market conditions remained challenging for recent college graduates during the third quarter of 2025. The unemployment rate remained elevated at an average of 5.3 percent and the underemployment rate rose to 41.8 percent—its highest level since 2020.
Recent Publications
Transformed Intermediation: Credit Risk to NBFIs, Liquidity Risk to Banks
The authors argue that the rapid asset growth of nonbank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) relative to banks is the outcome of the transformation of risks that increase the interconnectedness of the two sectors. Banks fund NBFIs through senior loans and credit lines, which NBFIs use for acquiring junior credit claims, warehouse financing, and liquidity management. The authors demonstrate that shocks experienced by NBFIs spill over to the banks providing them with credit lines, particularly in times of stress.
Viral V. Acharya, Nicola Cetorelli, and Bruce Tuckman, Staff Report 1176, January 2026
Deposit Specialization and Lending Behavior
The authors examine how banks’ depositor composition shapes lending behavior, using granular supervisory data on deposits, loans, and securities for the largest U.S. banks. Classifying banks by depositor specialization, they find persistent differences in funding that translate to differences in asset allocations. They argue that asset and liability choices are jointly determined, and depositor composition is a defining dimension of bank heterogeneity. Recognizing this heterogeneity is key for theory, policy design, and prudential regulation.
Kristian Blickle, Cecilia Parlatore, and Anthony Saunders, Staff Report 1175, December 2025
How Do Banks Build Equity Capital?
We examine the evolution of equity capital in the U.S. banking industry over the past 35 years. Earnings are the major driver of increases in equity capital in the banking industry. While common stock issuance is frequent, amounts issued are generally small and do not contribute meaningfully to equity capital growth in most cases. Common stock dividends and repurchases are significant drains on equity capital. It is not uncommon for banks to pay out more than they earn, driven both by capital planning motivations and negative shocks to earnings. It is also common for banks to both issue new common stock and make repurchases in the same year, with these offsetting actions related to employee stock-based compensation.
Lily Gordon and Beverly Hirtle, Staff Report 1174, December 2025
Less for You, More for Me: Credit Reallocation and Rationing Under Usury Limits
Many states have capped consumer loan interest rates to protect households from high-cost lenders. Studying three states that capped rates, the authors investigate how these usury limits affect the availability and allocation of credit across households. They find that credit to the riskiest borrowers contracts under usury limits without improving delinquencies. More surprisingly, credit to lower risk borrowers expands under usury limits, suggesting that usury limits have unintended effects that are not entirely explained by standard price theory.
Rajashri Chakrabarti, Daniel Garcia, Donald Morgan, and Lee Seltzer, Staff Report 1173, December 2025
Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds
Geoeconomic risk—the risk that firms incur valuation losses when countries deploy economic, trade, or financial leverage for geopolitical aims—has become a first-order concern for investors. The authors study this in the context of U.S. export controls that restrict sales of cutting-edge technology to selected Chinese firms for national security reasons. They find that mutual funds holding stocks of affected firms experience higher volatility and lower returns, indicating that firm-level geoeconomic risk can penetrate even a well-diversified portfolio.
Matteo Crosignani, Lina Han, and Marco Macchiavelli, Staff Report 1172, November 2025
Economics of Property Insurance
Homeowners’ property insurance is one of the most widely held financial contracts, with U.S. households paying about $150 billion per year to insure personal property against catastrophe. The authors study the economics of this insurance by examining how contract design balances the trade-off between incentive alignment and risk sharing. They develop and structurally estimate a model that provides, to their knowledge, the first large-scale contract level structural measures of risk aversion, risk premia, and the cost of moral hazard.
Hyeyoon Jung and Jaehoon (Kyle) Jung, Staff Report 1171, November 2025
Liquidity and Trading Dynamics in the Off-the-Run U.S. Treasury Market
Off-the-run Treasuries are seasoned securities and account for about 98 percent of all Treasuries outstanding. They also played a central role in the pandemic-fueled dash-for-cash in March 2020. The authors document and discuss the evolution of trading activity and liquidity for off-the-run securities and how these attributes differ from on-the-run securities. They also consider several potential market structure changes that could improve the liquidity of off-the-run Treasuries.
Alain Chaboud, Ellen Correia Golay, Michael Fleming, Yesol Huh, Frank Keane, and Or Shachar, Staff Report 1170, November 2025
Cognitive Health, Household Financial Decision-Making, and Intrahousehold Financial Spillovers
This study examines how the approach a couple uses for household financial decision-making affects the financial outcomes of each partner when one member experiences a decline in cognitive health from the onset of Alzheimer’s disease or a related dementia. They assess whether these effects are amplified or diminished depending on the couple’s approach to financial organization, focusing on financial outcomes related to debt and debt management.
Carole Roan Gresenz, Jean M. Mitchell, R. Scott Turner, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Crystal Wang, Staff Report 1169, October 2025
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