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Are First-Time Home Buyers Facing Desperate Times?
Some recent proposals and policy dialogue describe first-time home buyers (FTBs) as facing desperate times, but what is the evidence that FTBs are having unprecedented challenges? Using data from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), the authors point out that based on some metrics, the crisis appears to be unfounded and that FTBs are proving to be more resilient than some depict.
By Donghoon Lee and Joseph Tracy
Discount Window Stigma After the Global Financial Crisis
The rapid deposit outflows during the March 2023 banking run highlights the importance of the Federal Reserve’s discount window in strengthening financial stability. A lack of borrowing, however, has plagued the discount window for decades, likely due to banks’ concerns about discount window stigma. The discount window has been reformed several times to alleviate this problem, but it’s unknown whether stigma remains. The authors use transaction-level data to examine whether the discount window remains stigmatized today.
By Olivier Armantier, Marco Cipriani, and Asani Sarkar
Do Payout Restrictions Reduce Bank Risk?
In June 2020, the Federal Reserve issued stringent payout restrictions for the largest banks in the United States as part of its policy response to the COVID-19 crisis. These restrictions were aimed at enhancing banks’ resiliency amid heightened economic uncertainty, concerns about the risk of large losses, and also possibly preventing risk-shifting. The authors examine whether and how payout restrictions reduce bank risk using the U.S. experience during the pandemic.
By Fulvia Fringuellotti and Thomas Kroen
The R&D Puzzle in U.S. Manufacturing Productivity Growth
Since firms’ investment in research and development for new technologies constitutes a central driver of productivity growth, the authors explore if an observed slowdown in productivity may be due to a decline in R&D. Their results suggest that “R&D intensity” has been increasing, even as productivity growth declines. This points to a decline in the effectiveness of R&D in generating productivity growth in U.S. manufacturing.
By Danial Lashkari and Jeremy Pearce
Every Dollar Counts: The Top 5 Liberty Street Economics Posts of 2024
High prices and rising debt put pressure on household budgets this year, so it’s little wonder that the most-read Liberty Street Economics posts of 2024 dealt with issues of financial stress. These include rising delinquency rates, grocery price inflation, and the spread of “buy now, pay later” plans, along with a potential challenge to the U.S. dollar’s status in the international monetary system.
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2024
The authors present an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. They describe their forecast and its change since September 2024.
By Sophia Cho, Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula
RESEARCH TOPICS
Applied Macroeconomics
and Econometrics Center
The mission of the Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) is to provide intellectual leadership in the central banking community in the fields of macro and applied econometrics.

Data Releases
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
(Updated: Monthly)

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest
(Updated: Quarterly)

Multivariate Core Trend Inflation
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The New York Fed DSGE Model
(Updated: Quarterly)

New York Fed Staff Nowcast
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Outlook-at-Risk
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Treasury Term Premia
(Updated: Daily)

Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
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Center for Microeconomic Data
Reserve Demand Elasticity (RDE)
RDE estimates provide a quantitative measure of the ampleness of reserves in the U.S. banking system in real time. New data are published monthly.
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Equitable Growth Indicators (EGIs)   
A measure of disparities across four economic outcomes—inflation, real and nominal earnings, employment, and real and nominal consumer spending.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI)
The CMDI is a summary metric of corporate bond market functioning based on information from multiple sources including measures of primary market issuance and pricing, secondary market pricing and liquidity conditions, and the relative pricing between traded and nontraded bonds. It updates monthly.
Regional Surveys
Monthly surveys conducted by the New York Fed track the sentiment of executives at regional manufacturing and service-sector firms regarding business conditions.

Data Releases
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Business Leaders Survey
(Updated: Monthly)

Regional Business Surveys:
Special Topics
(Updated: Quarterly)
Regional Employment Trends
These interactive charts track employment in state and metro regions in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, utilizing the New York Fed’s early benchmarks of payroll employment data. It updates monthly.
Mapping Home Price Changes
Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.
Early Benchmarked Employment Data
Monthly releases of early benchmarked employment figures for New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey
The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates
The labor market for recent college graduates improved at the end of 2024. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent; the underemployment rate dropped to 38.7 percent—its lowest level in nearly two years.
Recent Publications
Input Sourcing Under Supply Chain Risk: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing Firms
The past few decades have seen a dramatic transformation in the international organization of production. For many firms, the timely delivery of inputs is a crucial element of the production process. However, increased reliance on imported inputs has exposed firms to a host of supply chain risks that can adversely affect the timeliness of input deliveries. The authors focus on one major source of risk—weather shocks—and how this supply chain vulnerability influences firms’ import behavior.
Joaquin Blaum, Federico Esposito, and Sebastian Heise, Staff Report 1141, February 2025
When It Rains, It Pours: Cyber Vulnerability and Financial Conditions
How does systemic cyber risk interact with other financial vulnerabilities? To study how cyber vulnerability evolves over the financial cycle, the authors analyze the market turmoil at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. They find that the systemic consequences of cyberattacks are heightened when markets are more volatile and when financial intermediaries’ balance sheets are strained. Furthermore, official-sector interventions to stabilize financial markets likely have a mitigating, if unintended, effect on cyber vulnerability.
Thomas M. Eisenbach, Anna Kovner, and Michael Junho Lee, Economic Policy Review 31, no. 1
Repo Intermediation and Central Clearing: An Analysis of Sponsored Repo
Through the past decade, the Treasury market has experienced several episodes when market functioning has been severely disrupted. These disruptions highlighted the important role of intermediaries and raised questions on identifying the drivers of spreads charged by these firms. Although significant work has been done considering these issues for some Treasury securities markets, little has been done on sponsored repo, where dealer-to-customer trades are centrally cleared. The authors evaluate the forces behind a dealer-intermediary’s decision to move a bilateral repo transaction with a customer into central clearing.
Adam Copeland and R. Jay Kahn, Staff Report 1140, December 2024
Corporate Debt Structure over the Global Credit Cycle
The authors study the determinants of prepayment at the instrument level for a large cross-section of firms around the world, how such prepayment affects firm-level debt structure, and how global credit conditions affect the ability and willingness of firms to refinance their debt early. Their results show that the impact of global credit conditions on firms' debt structure can be traced back to how instrument-level prepayment incentives change over the global credit cycle.
Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias, Staff Report 1139, December 2024
The Long-Term Rise of Labor Market Detachment: Evidence from Local Labor Markets
The authors develop a measure of chronic joblessness in the United States—termed the detachment rate—that identifies those who have been out of the labor force for more than a year. They show that the detachment rate doubled for prime-age men since the early 1980s and rose by a quarter for prime-age women since 2000. The rate increased more in places with weak local economies, particularly those with job loss due to globalization and technological change.
Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz, Staff Report 1138, November 2024
Discount Window Stigma After the Global Financial Crisis
The authors study Discount Window (DW) stigma, the reluctance to access the Federal Reserve’s lender-of-last-resort facility, between 2014 and 2024. Despite increased usage since 2020, they find conclusive evidence that the DW is stigmatized, especially among smaller banks and when financial markets experience disruptions. The authors also identify new determinants and consequences of DW stigma and discuss the implications for the provision of emergency liquidity.
Olivier Armantier, Marco Cipriani, and Asani Sarkar, Staff Report 1137, November 2024
Who Collaborates with the Soviets? Financial Distress and Technology Transfer During the Great Depression
The authors investigate the factors that drive domestic firms to sign technology transfer agreements (TTAs) and sell their technology to foreigners. By studying the agreements signed between U.S. firms and the Soviet Union during the 1920s and 1930s, they find that both local financial distress and cultural affinity with the foreign, receiving country make it more likely that firms will sign TTAs.
Jerry Jiang and Jacob P. Weber, Staff Report 1134, November 2024
A Jackknife Variance Estimator for Panel Regressions
Panel data models are often characterized by strong cross-sectional and time-series dependence. Typical applications, such as panels of states or countries, feature time series behavior which is, at least partially, driven by common components. The authors introduce a new jackknife variance estimator for panel-data regressions. They prove the asymptotic validity of their variance estimator and demonstrate desirable finite-sample properties in a series of simulation experiments.
Richard K. Crump, Nikolay Gospodinov, and Ignacio Lopez Gaffney, Staff Report 1133, October 2024
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