A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed.
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Note: Survey responses were collected between July 2 and July 10. Download the full report ![]() |
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Business activity continued to decline in the region’s service sector in July, though at a slower pace than in recent months, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index edged up four points but held below zero at -9.3. The business climate index rose fourteen points but remained negative at -34.6, suggesting the business climate remained worse than normal. Employment edged slightly higher, and wage growth picked up. Supply availability worsened, but less so than last month. The pace of input price increases remained moderate, while selling price increases picked up to the fastest pace in more than two years. Firms were neutral about the outlook after being pessimistic over the past few months.
Activity Continues to Decline
Business activity fell for a fifth consecutive month in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, according to the July survey. The headline business activity index rose four points but remained below zero at -9.3. Twenty-one percent of respondents reported that conditions improved over the month while 30 percent said that conditions worsened. The business climate index remained negative at -34.6, with 46 percent of respondents saying that the business climate was worse than normal. Selling Price Increases Pick Up
The employment index moved up six points to 3.8, pointing to a small increase in employment levels. After dropping to a multi-year low last month, the wages index increased nine points to 28.3, indicating that wage growth picked up. The prices paid index remained elevated at 64.5. The prices received index increased nine points to 30.1, its highest reading since March of 2023, pointing to a pickup in selling price increases. The supply availability index rose ten points but remained negative at -7.1, indicating that supply availability worsened, but not as much as in June. Outlook Neither Optimistic nor Pessimistic
Firms became more neutral about the outlook in July after turning pessimistic over the prior few months. The index for future business activity came in at 3.7. Employment is expected to edge up in the months ahead. Supply availability is expected to worsen, and capital spending plans were soft. Contacts Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025 |
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The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators, both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website. Contacts |