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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Survey responses were collected between February 3 and February 11.
After declining last month, manufacturing activity grew slightly in New York State, according to the February survey. The general business conditions index climbed eighteen points to 5.7. The new orders index rose twenty points to 11.4, suggesting orders increased after declining last month, and the shipments index rose sixteen points to 14.2, indicating that shipments increased. Unfilled orders held steady. The inventories index remained positive at 8.7, a sign that inventories grew. The delivery times index came in at 5.4, suggesting that delivery times were slightly longer, and the supply availability index dipped to -2.2, a sign that supply availability edged slightly lower.
The index for number of employees fell to -3.6, suggesting that employment levels moved somewhat lower, while the average workweek index was -1.2, suggesting that hours worked held steady. Both price indexes climbed for a second consecutive month: the prices paid index rose eleven points to 40.2, its highest level in nearly two years, and the prices received index rose ten points to 19.6.
Firms expect conditions to improve in the months ahead, but optimism declined noticeably. The index for future business activity fell fifteen points to 22.2. Capital spending plans remained soft. Supply availability is expected to contract somewhat over the next six months.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey
1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
