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The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Survey responses were collected between November 2 and November 9.
Download the full report 
Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed fourteen points to 9.1. New orders continued to fall slightly, while shipments picked up. Unfilled orders declined significantly, and delivery times shortened. Inventories increased for the first time in several months. Labor market indicators pointed to a small decline in employment and the average workweek. The pace of input price increases moderated just slightly, while selling price increases were little changed. There was a steep drop in the outlook, with firms no longer expecting conditions to improve over the next six months.
Manufacturing activity increased in New York State, according to the November survey. The general business conditions index rose fourteen points to 9.1, its highest reading since April. Thirty-three percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while twenty-four percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index held steady at -4.9, pointing to another small decline in orders, while the shipments index rose eight points to 10.0, pointing to an increase in shipments. The unfilled orders index fell four points to -23.2, a sign that unfilled orders continued to fall significantly. The inventories index rose eleven points to 9.1, indicating that inventories moved higher for the first time in several months. The delivery times index was little changed at -6.1, suggesting that delivery times continued to shorten.
The index for number of employees fell eight points to -4.5, and the average workweek index fell six points to -3.8, reflecting a small decline in employment levels and hours worked. The prices paid index edged down three points to 22.2, pointing to a slight moderation in input price increases, while the prices received held steady at 11.1, a sign that selling price increases remained modest.
Looking ahead, firms became much less sanguine about the outlook. The index for future business conditions plunged twenty-four points to -0.9, its lowest level in nearly a year. Only 29 percent of respondents expect conditions to be better in six months. New orders and shipments are expected to increase only modestly, though employment is expected to grow. The capital spending index dropped seven points to 3.0, and the technology index fell to zero, suggesting that capital spending plans and technology spending plans remained weak.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Data definitions
1 page / 15 kb
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
