NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the February 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations increased slightly at the short-term horizon but remained unchanged at the medium- and longer-term horizons. Households expressed more pessimism about their year-ahead financial situations in February, while unemployment, delinquency, and credit access expectations deteriorated notably. Meanwhile, spending growth expectations rose significantly. Average quit probabilities among those employed fell to the lowest level since July 2023.
The main findings from the February 2025 Survey are:
Inflation
- Median inflation expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point at the one-year horizon, to 3.1%, and were unchanged at the three-year and five-year horizons (both at 3.0%) in February. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year horizon and was unchanged at the three- and five-year horizons.
- Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at all three horizons.
- Median home price growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.
- Year-ahead commodity price expectations increased for all commodities. Median expected price growth increased by 1.1 percentage points for gas to 3.7% (its highest level since June 2024), 0.5 percentage point for food to 5.1% (its highest level since May 2024), 0.4 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 7.2%, 1.0% percentage point for the cost of a college degree to 6.9%, and 0.7 percentage point for rent to 6.7%.
Labor Market
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations were unchanged at 3.0% in February. The series has been moving within a narrow range between 2.7% and 3.0% since January 2024.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—jumped 5.4 percentage points to 39.4%, its highest reading since September 2023. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 14.1%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily (expected quit rate) in the next 12 months decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 17.6%, its lowest reading since July 2023. The decrease in the expected quit rate was broad-based across education and income groups.
- The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 51.2%, remaining below its trailing 12-month average of 52.5%.
Household Finance
- The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% in February. The series has been moving in a narrow range between 2.9% and 3.3% since January 2023.
- Median nominal household spending growth expectations rose by 0.6 percentage point to 5.0%, moving just above its trailing 12-month average of 4.9%. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups, but most pronounced for those with at most a high school education and those with an annual household income below $50,000.
- Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago showed a larger share of households reporting it is harder to get credit, and a smaller share reporting it is easier. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated considerably in February, with the share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit a year from now increasing to 46.7% from 35.6%. This reading is the highest since June 2024.
- The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three monthsincreased by 1.3 percentage points to 14.6%, the highest level since April 2020. The increase was driven by those without a college degree and largest for those under age 40.
- The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.4%.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 5.0%, the lowest reading since July 2017.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.4 percentage point to 25.4%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago were mostly unchanged, but year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations deteriorated considerably. The share of households expecting a worse financial situation in one year from now rose to 27.4%, the highest level since November 2023.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now dropped by 3.3 percentage points to 37.0%, the lowest level since December 2023.
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)
The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.
The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.
