Staff Reports
Buy Big or Buy Small? Procurement Policies, Firms' Financing, and the Macroeconomy
Previous title: “Government Procurement and Access to Credit: Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Implications”
Number 1006
February 2022 Revised June 2025

JEL classification: E22, E23, E62, G32

Authors: Julian di Giovanni, Manuel García-Santana, Priit Jeenas, Enrique Moral-Benito, and Josep Pijoan-Mas

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of public procurement. We exploit novel data to show that procurement eases firms’ borrowing constraints and has persistent effects on firm growth. Using a macroeconomic model with heterogeneous firms, asset- and earnings-based borrowing frictions, and government purchasing, we simulate revenue-neutral reforms that increase the share of small firms in procurement. We find that, despite helping financially constrained firms grow, these policies lead to non-trivial unintended negative effects. On net, the policies lead to a modest decline in GDP. The findings highlight how procurement design influences aggregate outcomes through firm-level financial frictions and reallocation dynamics.

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Author Disclosure Statement(s)
Julian di Giovanni
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.

Manuel García-Santana
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.

Priit Jeenas
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.

Enrique Moral-Benito
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.

Josep Pijoan-Mas
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
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