Scarce, Abundant, or Ample? A Time-Varying Model of the Reserve Demand Curve

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Staff Reports

Scarce, Abundant, or Ample? A Time-Varying Model of the Reserve Demand Curve

Number 1019
May 2022 Revised April 2024

JEL classification: E41, E43, E52, E58, G21

Authors: Gara Afonso, Domenico Giannone, Gabriele La Spada, and John C. Williams

What level of central bank reserves satiates banks’ demand for liquidity? We estimate the slope of the reserve demand curve in the United States over 2010-21 using a time-varying instrumental-variable approach at the daily frequency. When reserves exceed 12-13 percent of banks’ assets, demand for reserves is satiated: reserves are abundant, and the demand curve is flat; below this threshold, the curve’s slope becomes increasingly negative as reserves decline from ample to scarce. We also find that reserve demand has shifted over time, both vertically and horizontally. Our methodology works well out-of-sample and can assess reserve ampleness in real time.

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Author Disclosure Statement(s)

Gara Afonso
I confirm that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.

Domenico Giannone
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.

Gabriele La Spada
The author declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.

John C. Williams
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.

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