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June 2020 Revised November 2024
JEL classification: D31, E24, G21, O15
Authors: Manthos Delis, Fulvia Fringuellotti, and Steven Ongena
Small business entrepreneurs facing credit-constraints may have significantly different future income paths compared to unconstrained entrepreneurs. We quantify this difference using uniquely detailed loan application data and a regression discontinuity design based on a bank’s credit score cutoff rule employed in the decision to grant loans. We find that application acceptance increases recipients’ income five years later by 11 percent compared to rejected loan applicants. This effect survives in a large battery of robustness tests and is driven by the use of borrowed funds to make profitable investments. We also document that our results mostly reflect an upward mobility of poor individuals.
Manthos Delis declares that she has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper.
Fulvia Fringuellotti
Fulvia Fringuellotti declares that she has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Steven Ongena
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in the paper Delis, Manthos, Fulvia Fringuellotti and Steven Ongena, 2020, Credit, income and inequality. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
