Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
September Survey: Inflation Expectations Tick Up at Short- and Longer-Term Horizons; Labor Market Expectations Deteriorate
  • Median inflation expectations increased at the one-year-ahead horizon to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent and at the five-year-ahead horizon to 3.0 percent from 2.9 percent. They remained steady at the three-year-ahead horizon at 3.0 percent. The increase in the year-ahead measure was largest for those with at most a high school education and those with household incomes under $50,000.
  • Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 2.4 percent in September, the lowest reading since April 2021.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased 2.0 ppts to 41.1 percent.
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 0.4 ppt to 14.9 percent, above the trailing twelve-month average of 14.1 percent.



For more details:
Press Release: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Continue to Tick Up; Labor Market Expectations Deteriorate
SURVEY MODULES
SCE Credit Access
Survey
SCE Household
Spending Survey
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SCE Housing
Survey
SCE Labor Market
Survey
SCE Public Policy
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Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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