Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
Consumers Expect Lower Inflation at the Medium-Term Horizon; Delinquency Expectations Rise
Consumers’ three-year-ahead inflation expectations fell by 0.6 percentage point to 2.3 percent, hitting a new series low since the survey’s inception in June 2013, according to the July Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median one- and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. Delinquency expectations increased, with the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increasing by 1.0 percentage point to 13.3 percent, its highest level since April 2020. Labor market expectations came in mixed, with respondents’ median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth declining by 0.3 percentage point to 2.7 percent. However, the mean expected likelihood that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 36.6 percent.

For more details:
Press Release: Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Decline; Short and Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Unchanged
SURVEY MODULES
Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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