NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2023 SCE Labor Market Survey, which shows a decline in the proportion of job seekers, compared to a year ago. Satisfaction with wage compensation as well as with nonwage benefits and promotion opportunities at respondents’ current jobs improved. Regarding expectations, the average expected likelihood of receiving an offer in the next four months declined and the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed in the next four months increased, compared to a year ago. The average expected wage offer (conditional on receiving one) as well as the average reservation wage (the lowest wage at which respondents would be willing to accept a new job) increased year-over-year and reached series highs.
Experiences
- Among those who were employed four months ago, 91.4% were still employed, slightly down from 91.8% in July 2022. The rate of transitioning to a different employer increased to 5.3% from 4.1% in July 2022. This increase was driven by men and by respondents above age 45.
- The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks declined to 19.4% from 24.7% in July 2022. The decrease was most pronounced for respondents younger than age 45, those without a college degree, and those with annual household income less than $60k.
- 19.5% of individuals reported receiving at least one job offer in the past four months, down from 21.1% in July 2022. The average full-time offer wage received in the past four months, on the other hand, increased sharply to $69,475 from $60,764 in July 2022.
- Satisfaction with wage compensation, nonwage benefits, and promotion opportunities at respondents’ current jobs all improved by 3.0, 1.7, and 4.0 percentage points from July 2022 to 59.9%, 64.9%, and 53.5%, respectively. These increases were largest for the respondents with annual household incomes less than $60k.
Expectations
- The expected likelihood of moving to a new employer declined somewhat to 10.6% from 11.0% in July 2022, while the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed increased to 3.9% from 2.3% in July 2022, the highest reading since March 2020. This increase in the expected likelihood of becoming unemployed was most pronounced for respondents younger than age 45 and those with annual household incomes less than $60k.
- The average expected likelihood of receiving at least one job offer in the next four months retreated to 18.7% from 21.1% in July 2022, remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The average expected likelihood of receiving multiple offers in the next four months also declined, to 20.6% from 25.7% in July 2022.
- Conditional on expecting an offer, the average expected annual salary of job offers in the next four months increased sharply to $67,416 from $60,310 in July 2022, reaching the highest reading of the series. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups, but was most pronounced for respondents above age 45 and for college graduates.
- The average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—continued its upward annual trend and reached its highest reading of $78,645, from $72,873 in July 2022. This year-over-year increase was most pronounced for respondents above age 45.
- The average expected likelihood of working beyond age 62 declined to 47.7% from 48.8% in July 2022, the lowest reading since the start of the series in March 2014. The series has largely been on a downward trend since November 2020. The average expected likelihood of working beyond age 67, however, edged up to 32% from 31.3% in July 2022.
Detailed results are available here.
About the SCE Labor Market Survey
The SCE Labor Market Survey, fielded as part of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) since March 2014, provides information on consumers’ experiences and expectations regarding the labor market. Every four months, approximately 1,000 SCE panelists are asked details about their current (or most recent) job. Respondents are asked about job transitions, and about their job search effort and outcomes (number of job offers and offer wages), over the last four months. The currently employed are also asked about their level of satisfaction with wages, non-wage benefits, and their prospects for advancement at their current job. In addition, the survey elicits respondents’ expectations about job transitions over the next four months. Respondents are asked about the likelihood of receiving at least one job offer over the next four months, the expected number of offers, and the expected wages for these offers. The survey also elicits the respondents’ “reservation wage” and retirement expectations.
More information about the SCE survey goals, design, and content can be found here.
