AMEC Symposium on The Economic Implications of Heightened Uncertainty

November 14, 2025

On November 14, 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York with host a hybrid symposium titled “The Economic Implications of Heightened Uncertainty”. The goal of the symposium, which is being organized by the New York Fed's Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC), is to stimulate debate among academics, practitioners, and policymakers. The event will include presentations, followed by Q&A, on the implications of heightened uncertainty for trade and financial markets, firms and households, and the macroeconomy.

Event Details

Date & Time
November 14, 2025
10:00am to 3:05pm

Location
This will be a hybrid event, with most panelists participating in-person and the general audience attending virtually.

Audience
The conference is open to the public, academics, practitioners, and policymakers virtually. There will be opportunities for Q&A during the event.

Media
This event is open to the media both virtually and in person. All remarks are on the record and a recording will be made available afterward. Media who wish to attend virtually or in person must register by contacting Connor Munsch at Connor.Munsch@ny.frb.org.

Conference Organizers
Nina Boyarchenko
Julian DiGiovanni
Marco Del Negro
Jeremy Pearce

Contact
For logistical inquiries, please contact ny.researchconference@ny.frb.org.

Agenda

10:00am	Introduction: Marco Del Negro (New York Fed)
10:05am–11:05am	Session 1: Trade in an uncertain world The global trade environment has become more uncertain---could this increase in uncertainty lead to a decoupling of major trade blocs? What are the implications for global trade flows? What might lead to a deglobalization era? How do importing/exporting firms react to increased uncertainty in the short and long run? How can firms build resilience into their global supply chains? What are the medium- and long-term implications of trade uncertainty for the U.S. economy, especially in terms of productivity? Chair: Julian DiGiovanni (New York Fed) Panelists: Nuno Limão (Georgetown University), Steve Redding (Stanford University)
11:10am–12:10pm	Session 2: Uncertainty and financial markets How have financial markets reacted to the elevated uncertainty in early 2025? Do financial markets react to policy uncertainty differently than to other sources of volatility? Have we observed signs of the “safe and liquid” status of U.S. government securities deteriorating since the start of the year? What have been the implications of uncertainty for market liquidity? Do financial markets amplify policy uncertainty? Chair: Nina Boyarchenko (New York Fed) Panelists: Valentin Haddad (UCLA, Anderson) Sydney Ludvigson (New York University)
12:10pm–1:00pm	Lunch
1:00pm-2:00pm	Session 3: The effect of uncertainty on firms and households How does uncertainty affect firms’ investment and hiring decisions? How does uncertainty change households’ saving and working decisions? How quantitatively important, and persistent, are these effects? Does idiosyncratic or aggregate uncertainty matter most for firms and households, and does it matter in terms of their response? How does uncertainty affect firms of different sizes across different industries? How does uncertainty affect different households by households’ characteristics such as income? Chair: Jeremy Pearce (New York Fed) Panelists: Nick Bloom (Stanford University), Stefanie Stantcheva (Harvard University)
2:05pm-3:05pm	Session 4: Uncertainty and the macroeconomy Uncertainty in the U.S., and to a large extent around the world, in early 2025 has been as high as it's ever been according to some popular indexes (eg, EPU). What has the impact of such high uncertainty on the macroeconomy been so far? Are uncertainty shocks demand shocks? How should monetary policy respond to them? What makes for an ideal measure of uncertainty, and what are the challenges in measuring it? There are many sources of uncertainty (such as fiscal and monetary policy, geopolitical, trade, and finance) --- to what extent does the source matter for the macroeconomy? If it does, how many uncertainty indexes should there be? Chair: Marco Del Negro(New York Fed) Panelists: Steve Davis (Hoover Institution and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research), Simon Gilchrist (New York University)

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