The Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York (through its Center for Microeconomic Data), are organizing the Sixth Joint Conference on Expectations Surveys. The conference will be held on October 9 and 10 at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This annual conference aims to convene scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys.
Conference topics cover a wide range of research focusing on the collection and analysis of surveys of households, firms, and financial market participants. The conference program will feature a plenary keynote session by Luigi Pistaferri of Stanford University, and a panel of survey experts focusing on best practices in conducting probability-based household internet panels.
Event Details
Date & Time
October 9-10, 2025
October 9-10, 2025
Location
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33 Liberty Street
New York, NY
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33 Liberty Street
New York, NY
Audience
This event is open to academics and other researchers in the fields of economics, finance, and related disciplines. The event is in-person and attendance is by invitation-only.
This event is open to academics and other researchers in the fields of economics, finance, and related disciplines. The event is in-person and attendance is by invitation-only.
Media
This event is open to media and on the record. Media who wish to attend or have questions should contact Connor Munsch at Connor.Munsch@ny.frb.org.
This event is open to media and on the record. Media who wish to attend or have questions should contact Connor Munsch at Connor.Munsch@ny.frb.org.
Organizing Committee
Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
Georgi Kocharkov, European Central Bank
Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada
Tao Wang, Bank of Canada
Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
Georgi Kocharkov, European Central Bank
Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada
Tao Wang, Bank of Canada
Agenda
Agenda
| Thursday, October 9, 2025 |
|
| 8:30am | Registration and Breakfast |
| 8:50am | Welcoming Remarks Kartik B. Athreya, Director of Research and Head of the Research and Statistics Group |
| 9:00am | Expectations and Consumer Behavior Chair: Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Geopolitical Risks and their Implications for Consumer Expectations and Spending Olivier Coibion Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank Yuriy Gorodnichenko Geoff Kenny |
|
| Subjective Uncertainty and the Marginal Propensity to Consume Gizem Kosar Davide Melcangi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
|
| Wage Expectations and Job Search Steffen Altman Robert Mahlstedt Malte Rattenborg Alexander Sebald Sonja Settele Johannes Wohlfart, University of Cologne |
|
| 10:30am | Coffee Break |
| 11:00am | Firm Expectations Chair: Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| The Effects of Uncertainty on Firms’ Pricing Behavior and Activity Giuseppe Fiori, Federal Reserve Board of Governors Filippo Scoccianti |
|
| Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms Ina Hajdini Saten Kumar Samreen Malik Jordan Norris Mathieu Pedemonte, Inter-American Development Bank |
|
| Business Uncertainty in Developing and Emerging Economies Edgar Avalos Jose Maria Barrero, Instituto Tecnologico Autónomo de Mexico Business School Elwyn Davies Leonardo Iacovone Jesica Torres |
|
| 12:30pm | Lunch |
| 2:00pm | Panel Discussion: Perspectives on Running Expectations Surveys Moderator: Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Thomas Crossley, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan Jeff Dominitz, Rice University Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank |
| 3:00pm | Coffee Break |
| 3:30pm | Flash Talks I Chair: Patrick Sabourin (Bank of Canada) |
| Subjective Expectations of Husbands and Wives and Couples’ Demand for Contraception Aureo de Paula Grant Miller Christine Valente, University of Bristol |
|
| Search Costs, Outside Options, and On-the-Job Search Armando Miano, University of Naples |
|
| What Determines Household Expectations? Anushka Mitra, Federal Reserve Board of Governors Aditi Singh |
|
| 4:15pm | Coffee Break |
| 4:30pm | Flash Talks II Chair: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank |
| Inflation Preferences Hassan Afrouzi Alexander Dietrich Kristian Ove Myrseth Romanos Priftis Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University |
|
| Selective Inattention to Interest Rates Tim de Silva Pierfrancesco Mei, Goldman Sachs |
|
| Beyond the Short Run: Monetary Policy and Innovation Investment Michaela Elfsbacka-Schmoller Olga Goldfayn-Frank Tobias Schmidt, Deutsche Bundesbank |
|
| 5:45pm | Reception |
| 6:15pm | Dinner |
| Friday, October 10, 2025 |
|
| 8:30am | Breakfast |
| 9:00am | Keynote Lecture Chair: Wilbert van der Klaauw Eliciting Marginal Propensity Data Luigi Pistaferri, Stanford University |
| 10:00am | Coffee Break |
| 10:30am | Methods and Measurement Chair: Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada |
| Estimating Flexible Income Processes from Subjective Expectations Data: Evidence from India and Colombia Manuel Arellano Orazio Attanasio, Yale University Sam Crossman Victor Sancibrian |
|
| Learning from Survey Density Forecasts Martin Almuzara Richard Crump, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Gizem Kosar |
|
| Incentivizing Inflation Expectations Sergii Drobot Daniela Puzzello, Indiana University at Bloomington Ryan Rholes Alena Wabitsch |
|
| Understanding the Accuracy of Non-Random Survey Through a Unique Matched Administrative – Expectations Dataset Naveen Rai Xu Zhang, Bank of Canada |
|
| 12:30pm | Lunch |
| 11am | Belief Formation Chair: Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank |
| Attention to the Macroeconomy Sebastian Link Andreas Peichl Oliver Pfauti, University of Texas at Austin Christopher Roth Johannes Wohlfart |
|
| Credit Market Experiences and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory Josefina Cenzon, Bocconi University |
|
| Lumpy Forecasts in Volatile Times Isaac Baley Javier Turen, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile |
|
| 3:00pm | End of Conference |
