Event

Sixth Joint BoC – ECB – New York Fed Conference on Expectations Surveys: Best Practices and Innovations for Central Bank Policy and Research

October 09, 2025
Over the past fifteen years, central banks have made extensive and important advances in the collection and analysis of subjective expectations data. These efforts reflect the data’s value in conducting monetary policy and economic forecasting. The ensuing research has deepened the understanding of how economic agents form and update their expectations and how these expectations affect behavior.

The Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York (through its Center for Microeconomic Data), are organizing the Sixth Joint Conference on Expectations Surveys. The conference will be held on October 9 and 10 at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This annual conference aims to convene scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys.

Conference topics cover a wide range of research focusing on the collection and analysis of surveys of households, firms, and financial market participants. The conference program will feature a plenary keynote session by Luigi Pistaferri of Stanford University, and a panel of survey experts focusing on best practices in conducting probability-based household internet panels.

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Event Details

Date & Time
October 9-10, 2025

Location
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
33 Liberty Street
New York, NY

Audience
This event is open to academics and other researchers in the fields of economics, finance, and related disciplines. The event is in-person and attendance is by invitation-only.

Media
This event is open to media and on the record, with the recording to be made available afterward. Media who wish to attend or have questions should contact Connor Munsch at Connor.Munsch@ny.frb.org.

Contact
For logistical inquiries, please contact ny.researchconference@ny.frb.org.

Organizing Committee
Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
Kim Huynh, Bank of Canada
Monica Jain, Bank of Canada
Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
Georgi Kocharkov, European Central Bank
Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Patrick Sabourin, Bank of Canada
Tao Wang, Bank of Canada

Agenda
Agenda
Thursday, October 9, 2025
8:30am Registration and Breakfast
8:50am Welcoming Remarks
Kartik B. Athreya, Director of Research and Head of the Research and Statistics Group
9:00am Expectations and Consumer Behavior
Chair: Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Geopolitical Risks and their Implications for Consumer Expectations and Spending
Olivier Coibion
Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Geoff Kenny
Subjective Uncertainty and the Marginal Propensity to Consume
Gizem Kosar
Davide Melcangi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Wage Expectations and Job Search
Steffen Altman
Robert Mahlstedt
Malte Rattenborg
Alexander Sebald
Sonja Settele
Johannes Wohlfart, University of Cologne
10:30am Coffee Break
11am Firm Expectations
Chair: Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The Effects of Uncertainty on Firms’ Pricing Behavior and Activity
Giuseppe Fiori, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Filippo Scoccianti
Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms
Ina Hajdini
Saten Kumar
Samreen Malik
Jordan Norris
Mathieu Pedemonte, Inter-American Development Bank
Business Uncertainty in Developing and Emerging Economies
Edgar Avalos
Jose Maria Barrero, Instituto Tecnologico Autónomo de Mexico Business School
Elwyn Davies
Leonardo Iacovone
Jesica Torres
12:30pm Lunch
2:00pm Panel Discussion: Perspectives on Running Expectations Surveys
Moderator: Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Thomas Crossley, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
Jeff Dominitz, Rice University
Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
3:00pm Coffee Break
3:30pm Flash Talks I
Chair: Patrick Sabourin (Bank of Canada)
Subjective Expectations of Husbands and Wives and Couples’ Demand for Contraception
Aureo de Paula
Grant Miller
Christine Valente, University of Bristol
Search Costs, Outside Options, and On-the-Job Search
Armando Miano, University of Naples
What Determines Household Expectations?
Anushka Mitra, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Aditi Singh
4:30pm Flash Talks II
Chair: Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank
Inflation Preferences
Hassan Afrouzi
Alexander Dietrich
Kristian Ove Myrseth
Romanos Priftis
Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University
Selective Inattention to Interest Rates
Tim de Silva
Pierfrancesco Mei, Goldman Sachs
Beyond the Short Run: Monetary Policy and Innovation Investment
Michaela Elfsbacka-Schmoller
Olga Goldfayn-Frank
Tobias Schmidt, Deutsche Bundesbank
5:45pm Reception
6:15pm Dinner

Friday, October 10, 2025
8:30am Breakfast
9:00am Keynote Lecture
Chair: Wilbert van der Klaauw

Eliciting Marginal Propensity Data
Luigi Pistaferri, Stanford University
10:00am Coffee Break
10:30am Methods and Measurement
Chair: Olena Kostyshyna, Bank of Canada
Estimating Flexible Income Processes from Subjective Expectations Data: Evidence from India and Columbia
Manuel Arellano
Orazio Attanasio, Yale University
Sam Crossman
Victor Sancibrian
Learning from Survey Density Forecasts
Martin Almuzara
Richard Crump, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Gizem Kosar
Incentivizing Inflation Expectations
Sergii Drobot
Daniela Puzzello, Indiana University at Bloomington
Ryan Rholes
Alena Wabitsch
Understanding the Accuracy of Non-Random Survey Through a Unique Matched Administrative – Expectations Dataset
Naveen Rai
Xu Zhang, Bank of Canada
12:30pm Lunch
11am Belief Formation
Chair: Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
Attention to the Macroeconomy
Sebastian Link
Andreas Peichl
Oliver Pfauti, University of Texas at Austin
Christopher Roth
Johannes Wohlfart
Credit Market Experiences and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory
Josefina Cenzon, Bocconi University
Lumpy Forecasts in Volatile Times
Isaac Baley
Javier Turen, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
3:00pm End of Conference

 


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